Prophecy isn’t all balderdash. I make this prophecy that the Sun will rise tomorrow morning in New York City! I also make this prophecy that New York City will experience at least one thunderstorm between May and September 2011. Further, I’ll make another prophecy that there will be at least one murder in New York City in the month of June, 2011. But, if I make a prediction that aliens will invade New York City in 2011; some New Yorkers will experience the Biblical Rapture in 2011; or that planetary alignments suggest that 90% of couples living in Manhattan will divorce in 2011, well you’d call that balderdash. So, what’s the dividing line between making balderdash prophecy and making sensible predictions?
Scientifically Near Certain: Nothing is absolutely certain except death and taxes, thus the use of the word ‘near’. However, in this case, scientifically ‘near’ certain means 99.99999% certain. Examples of this sort of prophecy are the times of the rising and setting of the Sun, the Moon, the planets and stars; the rise and fall of the tides (time of high and low tides); lunar and solar eclipses decades in advance; and other predictable events of this nature in an ordered and clockwork Universe. There is no kudos or pats on the back given for soothsaying in this category.
Scientifically Predictable (Statistically Probable): Not everything is predictable with near absolute certainty, even in science. Some patterns are a bit too chaotic to yield to absolutes. The classic case is the weather. I’ve known predictions of a 100% chance of rain when not a drop fell! However, that’s very rare. Still, it tends to be a chance of thunderstorms, or this or that. That applies to earthquake predictions and similar events. Science can predict with 100% certainty that you’re going to kick-the-bucket. However, the exact moment in nearly all cases is uncertain. There is no kudos or pats on the back given for soothsaying in this category either. Read the rest of this entry »

